Hurdles in the Way of a Mnangagwa Third Term

President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who succeeded Robert Mugabe after a military-assisted transition in 2017, has already served two terms as Zimbabwe’s leader. At a meeting with the Zimbabweans living in China in September 2024, the President described himself as “a constitutionalist” indicating that he had no desire to continue beyond his term. His allies have hinted at the possibility of a third term. However such a move faces numerous consitutional obstacles that could define not only his political legacy but also the democratic future of Zimbabwe.

Constitutional and Legal Challenges

Zimbabwe’s 2013 Constitution, heralded as a progressive framework for governance, sets a firm two-term limit for the presidency under Section 91(2). This provision states that a person is disqualified from running for president if they have already served two terms. For Mnangagwa to pursue a third term, this clause would need to be amended through a constitutional process, requiring significant parliamentary support and national consensus.

Additionally, Section 328(7) of the Constitution prohibits amendments that extend the president’s tenure beyond two terms from applying to the incumbent. This safeguard explicitly prevents a sitting president from benefiting from term-limit changes, meaning any attempt to amend the Constitution to allow a third term would likely be challenged as unconstitutional.

The recent extension of judicial retirement ages under Constitutional Amendment No. 2 of 2021 has already drawn criticism, with accusations that Mnangagwa manipulated the judiciary for political gain. A similar attempt to amend presidential term limits would likely trigger widespread public dissent and legal battles.

Internal Party Dynamics

While Mnangagwa currently wields significant power within ZANU-PF, the party is no stranger to factionalism. The ousting of Robert Mugabe highlighted the fragility of leadership in a party where alliances are often transactional and opportunistic.

Ambitious party members, such as Vice President Constantino Chiwenga, may view a third-term bid as a threat to their own political aspirations. Chiwenga, who played a pivotal role in the 2017 coup that installed Mnangagwa, has a loyal following within both the military and the party. Should Mnangagwa pursue a third term, it could intensify internal rivalries, destabilizing the party and undermining his authority.

Economic Instability

Zimbabwe’s economic situation remains one of the most significant barriers to Mnangagwa’s third-term ambitions. Hyperinflation, persistent currency devaluation, and widespread unemployment have fueled public frustration. The failure of Mnangagwa’s administration to deliver on promises of economic reform and growth has left many Zimbabweans disillusioned.

The government’s reliance on state resources to maintain political support is increasingly untenable in the face of economic constraints. For instance, efforts to placate civil servants, who are crucial to maintaining public order, have been met with demands for salary adjustments in US dollars, putting further strain on the treasury. A third-term campaign could exacerbate economic grievances, fueling protests and civil disobedience.

Public Discontent and Opposition Movements

Public dissatisfaction with Mnangagwa’s leadership is palpable, particularly in urban areas, where the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) has gained significant ground. Led by Nelson Chamisa, the CCC has become a rallying point for youth and urban voters disillusioned by decades of ZANU-PF rule.

Mnangagwa’s government has been accused of using heavy-handed tactics to suppress opposition, including arbitrary arrests and restrictions on political gatherings. However, a third-term bid could unify fragmented opposition groups, leading to coordinated resistance. Civil society organizations, such as the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) and influential church leaders, may also amplify calls for accountability, further complicating Mnangagwa’s path to extended rule.

Regional and International Pressure

Zimbabwe’s regional and international relationships could also be tested by a third-term bid. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has traditionally taken a cautious approach to internal affairs within member states. However, its recent criticism of disputed elections in countries like Eswatini and the DRC signals a growing intolerance for leaders perceived as undermining democratic norms.

The African Union (AU) has also adopted stricter stances on unconstitutional changes of government. A third-term attempt by Mnangagwa risks isolating Zimbabwe from its peers, potentially inviting regional sanctions or diplomatic pressure.

Western nations, which have imposed sanctions on Zimbabwe for human rights violations and electoral irregularities, would likely escalate their responses. The resulting economic and diplomatic isolation could deter foreign investment, exacerbating Zimbabwe’s economic woes.

Legacy and Succession Concerns

Mnangagwa’s legacy is at a crossroads. His rise to power was framed as an opportunity to transition Zimbabwe away from the autocracy of Robert Mugabe. However, a bid for a third term could reinforce perceptions of him as yet another leader seeking to entrench his rule.

Failing to establish a clear succession plan may also destabilize both ZANU-PF and the nation. The violent infighting that characterized the latter years of Mugabe’s presidency serves as a cautionary tale. Without a credible succession strategy, a leadership vacuum could lead to a power struggle, risking political instability and undermining any progress achieved during his tenure.

Examples from Other African Nations

Zimbabwe is not alone in grappling with the challenges of presidential term limits. Similar efforts to extend presidential tenure have faced backlash across Africa. In Burundi in 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to pursue a third term led to widespread protests and a failed coup. In Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni successfully removed term limits, but his prolonged rule has been marred by accusations of repression and stagnation.

These examples underscore the risks associated with undermining constitutional safeguards, including potential civil unrest and long-term damage to democratic institutions.

While a Mnangagwa third term is not beyond the realm of possibility, the hurdles are formidable. Constitutional provisions, internal party dynamics, economic instability, public discontent, and international pressure all pose significant challenges. Moreover, the historical lessons from Zimbabwe and other African nations suggest that undermining democratic norms often leads to instability and a tarnished legacy.

For Mnangagwa, the decision to pursue a third term will require balancing his personal ambitions against the broader consequences for Zimbabwe’s democracy, stability, and future. Whether he chooses to step back or press forward, the path ahead will undoubtedly shape the nation’s trajectory for years to come.